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Maternal Referral Loop Closure  ·  Lushoto District, Tanga

Quarterly portfolio brief

Q2 2026  ·  Lushoto District  ·  3 implementing partners  ·  127 high-risk referrals tracked
Portfolio intelligence · generated 14 minutes ago
Loop closure across the Lushoto portfolio reached 74.0% this quarter, up from 61% at baseline — but the headline number obscures a sharp split between partners and terrain. Amref's highland catchments (Mlalo, Mtae) close 58% of loops against 84% for Mkombozi Trust in the valley corridor, a gap driven primarily by transport failure during the long rains rather than clinical factors. Three adverse outcomes this quarter all originated as referrals that never arrived at Bumbuli DDH; two had been flagged as high-probability failures by the system but the alerts were not actioned within the 6-hour window. Recommendation for Q3 allocation: shift the transport voucher line from partner-agnostic to terrain-weighted, and set a 6-hour escalation SLA on flagged-critical referrals. Both changes are costable from existing budget.
Loop closure rate
74.0%
12.9 pp vs. baseline
High-risk referrals (quarter)
127
94 closed · 30 open · 3 adverse
Median time-to-arrival
9.4h
3.1h vs. baseline
Cost per closed loop
$38.20
$4.70 vs. Q1
Where the loops break
Stage-by-stage attrition · Q2 2026
Without closed-loop tracking, the 33 women whose referrals never resolved would be invisible to this program's M&E system until they surfaced in next year's MMR figures — if they surfaced at all.
Closure trend
12-week rolling · all partners
Implementing partner performance
Outcome attribution · not volume attribution
Partner Catchment Referrals Closure rate Median arrival Cost / closed loop Leading failure mode
Mkombozi Trust
Lushoto + Soni corridor
Valley, paved 42 84% 6.1 h $29.40 Facility wait >2h
CCBRT
Bumbuli catchment
Mixed terrain 48 76% 10.2 h $36.80 Transport unavailable
Amref Health Africa
Mlalo + Mtae highlands
Highland, unpaved 37 58% 14.8 h $51.70 Rain-season road failure
Pattern detected
Afternoon referrals fail 3.2× more often than morning referrals
3.2×
Referrals initiated after 16:00 close at 41% vs. 83% for pre-noon. Root cause: daladala (minibus) transport effectively stops at dusk on the Mlalo–Lushoto route. Implication for partner protocol design.
Leading indicator
Pre-eclampsia referrals now closing within SLA 84% of the time
+26 pp
Up from 58% when program launched. Loop closure rate on this sub-cohort is moving 4–6 weeks ahead of MMR — a usable leading signal for adverse-outcome prediction at the district level.
CHW retention
CHWs receiving closure notifications report 38% lower intent-to-leave
−38%
Self-reported in quarterly survey (n=42). Closure visibility appears to operate as a workforce-retention mechanism independent of its clinical value — relevant for sustainability planning.

Open referrals

Live queue · 27 open · 4 flagged critical · AI re-scores every 15 min
Filter
08:42 TIGO · 3G · 84%
Habari, mama
Grace Mwanga
CHW · Mlalo Ward · Lushoto
Amina delivered safely
C-section at Bumbuli DDH, 04:18 this morning. Mother and baby girl stable. Loop closed.
Your active cases 24 mothers
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